I got to present on the systemic risk consequences of Brexit in a SUERF conference. The slides can be downloaded here. The main conclusions are:
- Systemic consequences of Brexit possible but unlikely
- Systemic crises happen when we suddenly question existing assumptions for how the world works
- It is hard to identify what will go wrong, in advance
- Soft Brexit may increase systemic risk
- Brexit may result in lower systemic risk if the regulatory landscape fragments and globalism is reduced
- Hard Brexit and a tough EU stand in the negotiations may lower systemic risk
- Unknown unknowns are the threat
- They may lurk in the legal plumbing and equivalence
Brexit bloggs
- 2021-10-01 The logical fallacy at the heart of the intellectual case for Brexit;
- 2021-01-11 Erasmus and Turing;
- 2021-01-03 Brexit and Marxism;
- 2019-05-04 The Brexit culture war;
- 2017-02-23 Systemic consequences of Brexit;
- 2016-04-18 Will Brexit give us the 1950s or Hong Kong;
- 2016-04-16 Brexit and regulations.